Thursday 10th November, 2022
Dream Finders Homes is predominantly operating in Southern US states, which are benefiting from long-term positive migration trends. (Exhibit 1)
Exhibit 1: Almost half of US population growth since the 1970s has been in the South
Source: US Census Bureau
Key drivers being warmer weather and lower state taxes (State income taxes in TX and FL are 0%), with the option to move partly facilitated by hybrid/ remote working.
For the 9 markets DFH operates in, prices are strongly up so far this year. (Exhibit 2)
Exhibit 2: Median house prices in DFH markets have continued to rise in 2022 (% Chg)
Source: Zillow
However in five of the states: Denver, Washington D.C., Raleigh, Austin and Dallas prices are off between 1-5% from their May-July highs. (Exhibit 3)
Exhibit 3: House prices have started to decline in five of DFH’s nine markets
Source: Zillow
The Equity Analyst 