equityanalyst13

Wayfair’s path to 8% FCF yields

Sunday 10th July, 2022 “Over the last 4 or 5 years, we’ve had this agenda on how we can unlock a lot of gross margin. We’re talking about a 1,000 basis point runway, and this was back when we were at 24% to 25% gross margin.” – Niraj Shah, CEO of Wayfair, Q3 ‘21 earningsContinue reading “Wayfair’s path to 8% FCF yields”

BUY Wayfair: An 8x in 8 years?

Wednesday 29th June, 2022 Wayfair’s stock has been hit from multiple angles. The home goods industry in which it operates is set for further contraction as rising food and energy costs divert consumer spending away from discretionary categories like furniture and home furnishings. The industry has also seen sales shrink as consumers redirected their dollarsContinue reading “BUY Wayfair: An 8x in 8 years?”

HelloFresh: May lose their share of the pie

Thursday 28th April, 2022 If it can maintain its rapid growth and profitability, it’s a bargain HelloFresh (XTRA: HFG) provides meal kits to customers in 16 countries and has grown sales at a 5yr CAGR of 60%! In absolute terms, sales have grown from €600m in 2016 to €6B in 2021. It currently has aboutContinue reading “HelloFresh: May lose their share of the pie”

Why I am selling out of Playtech

Wednesday 10th March, 2021 Summary I am selling out of Playtech because I have found evidence to suggest Playtech’s core business-to-business (B2B) software product, “IMS”, is not as powerful in increasing the revenues of its online customers as I previously thought. Background I bought shares in Playtech in April and July 2020 at an averageContinue reading “Why I am selling out of Playtech”

Stabilus: 14% IRR opportunity

20th September, 2019 Stabilus (XTRA: STM), is the world leader in the manufacture of gas springs and motorized opening and closing systems with a market cap of €1.5bn. The stock currently represents about 5% of my portfolio, with the potential to deliver about an 14% rate of return over the next decade, which is aContinue reading “Stabilus: 14% IRR opportunity”

EXIT Mincon: An acquisitive drill bit maker failing to benefit from turning cycle

Thursday 23 August, 2018 The mining industry downturn began in 2013, but has been showing signs of recovery since early 2017. Industry experts point to declining ore-grades and an improving mining investment cycle as favourable factors for the future of mining consumables manufacturers such as Mincon (LON:MCON). The market has not been blind to theseContinue reading “EXIT Mincon: An acquisitive drill bit maker failing to benefit from turning cycle”

Purplebricks: Leading a revolution, without a moat

Wednesday 26th July, 2017 Executive Summary I believe Purplebricks is an interesting short with ~90% of downside. The business offers a commodity product, at the highest prices in the market, in an industry with low barriers and dozens of new entrants. Rapid adoption of its “Fixed Fee” model in the UK is being extrapolated intoContinue reading “Purplebricks: Leading a revolution, without a moat”